Prediction Under a Blood Moon: Why Bipartisanship Flat-lined — and What the Election Results Just Confirmed
Originally drafted on Election Day (Nov 8, 2022); updated with certified 2022 mid-term outcomes.
When that crimson eclipse slipped below the horizon I wrote that the night would deepen—rather than heal—America’s political fracture. The Lugar Center’s Bipartisan Index already showed Congress stuck in negative territory; my fear was that voters would reward the least-collaborative members anyway.
1. What the Numbers Predicted
| Chamber | Incumbents on the 2022 ballot | Negative Bipartisan scores | ≤ −1 | ≤ −2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | 28 | 14 | 6 | 0 |
| House | 435 (all seats) | 325 | 84 | 3 |
Data takeaway: The deeper a member’s partisan trench, the safer the seat often looked.
2. What Actually Happened
Senate (≤ −1 club)
- Richard Shelby (R-AL) – retired; seat stayed Republican (Katie Britt).
- Tim Scott (R-SC), Ron Johnson (R-WI), Mike Lee (R-UT), John Kennedy (R-LA), Rand Paul (R-KY) – all re-elected.
(For context, Democrats Patty Murray, Alex Padilla and Ron Wyden—each between −0.5 and −1—also won easily.)
House (the ≤ −2 trio)
- Mary Miller (R-IL-15), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA-14), Lauren Boebert (R-CO-3) – all re-elected (Boebert by just 546 votes).
House (sample of ≤ −1 names)
Most held their seats: Andy Biggs, Jim Jordan, Scott Perry, Cori Bush, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Matt Gaetz, etc.
Notable departures:
- Mo Brooks (retired), Louie Gohmert (retired), Madison Cawthorn (lost primary), Liz Cheney (lost primary), Yvette Herrell (general-election defeat).
Net effect: The worst bipartisan scores barely budged. The Senate kept all but one of its sub-(-1) incumbents; the House shed only a handful through primaries or retirements, not voter-driven repudiation in November.
3. A Congress Even Narrower—Yet No Less Extreme
- House control flipped to Republicans 222-213—a margin so thin that just five hard-liners can stall any bill or determine the Speaker’s fate.
- Senate remained Democratic 51-49 (counting Independents who caucus left), but the decisive 50th and 51st votes belong to members whose bipartisan scores hover well below zero.
Small swings in numbers; big leverage for the loudest flanks.
4. The Cost of Another Polarized Term
- Gridlock Premium. Markets, agencies and local governments price in delayed budgets, debt-ceiling brinkmanship and pro-forma confirmation wars.
- Lost Opportunity Dividend. A less-divided government could reap tangible gains—modernized infrastructure permitting, immigration reform, long-term fiscal fixes. Instead, we’ll pay with stalled projects, temporary patches and crisis choreography.
- Voter Exhaustion Loop. Each year of performative warfare convinces more citizens that politics is hopeless, shrinking turnout to the most intensely partisan ranks—and the cycle tightens again.
5. Conclusion: The Blood-Moon Lesson
The eclipse was fleeting; the divide it spotlighted is not. Extremity kept its incumbency bonus in 2022, even as congressional margins tightened to razor edges—magnifying each faction’s ability to halt the other. Until voters consistently reward bridge-builders over bridge-burners, America will keep paying a steep price in delayed policy, economic uncertainty and frayed civic fabric—while the unclaimed dividend of genuine cooperation remains on the table, earning zero interest.
Choose engagement. Choose data over outrage. And, whenever possible, choose joy—even if the view from Capitol Hill stays blood-red for a while longer.
